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TeliaSonera is expected to lose it’s market share to 3 by 2010 (Sweden)

  • September 9th, 2008
  • 1:39 pm

Sweden believes in innovative mobile sector. Sweden was the first country in Europe to have UMTS networks across all major operators. The subscriber growth has slowed down in recent years, due to market saturation. The analogue network was shut down in mid-2007, while the 450MHz frequency has been switched to digital use to provide a national mobile broadband service. Strong competition among network operators has lead to falling call prices and ARPU.

OPERATORS
Telenor
Telia Sonera
Tele2
3 Hutchison Whampoa
Nordisk Mobiltelefon

Notable highlights of Sweden Mobile market:

  • The number of total subscribers will increase gradually from 11.3 million in 2008 to 11.6 million in 2010. This translates into an increase in wireless penetration from 119.5% in 2008 to 124% in 2010.
  • Changes in major operator’s market shares is expected over the next three years. Although market shares of Tele 2 and Telenor are expected to stay at approximately 30.1% and 16.8% respectively, Telia’s market share is expected to decrease from 45.3% in 2008 to 44.6% in 2010. This is caused by an increase in 3 (Hutchison)’s market share from 6.7% to 8.7% over this period.
  • In 2010, Telenor, the third largest operator in Sweden, will receive the highest ARPU among competitors at US$ 49.46 per month. On the other hand, the largest operator, Telia, will receive the lowest ARPU at US$ 30.81 per month in 2010.
  • It is also forecasted that Telia that will enjoy the highest EBITDA margin of 36.7% in 2010.

   

Movistar will continue to earn highest ARPU in 2010 (Colombia)

  • September 9th, 2008
  • 1:38 pm

Colombia’s lowest mobile rates among the Latin American countries leads to higher penetration rate. A 50% cut in mobile termination charges further reduced the average price per minute of mobile calls by up to 30% in the first quarter of 2008. Drop has affected operator’s ARPU but the cut was partly paid off by increase traffic. América Móvil’s Comcel is the leading cellular company in Colombia, followed by Telefónica’s Movistar and Millicom-controlled Colombia Móvil (trading as Tigo).

Operators                        Subscribers (Million) 
Comcel (AMX)                    25.195
Movistar Colombia (TEF)    8.755
Tigo Colombia (MICC)        3.263

Notable highlights of Colombia Mobile Forecast include:

  • The wireless penetration level in Colombia will continue increasing and it will reach 88.7% in 2010. The number of total subscribers in the country will increase from our projected 35.7 million in 2008 to 40.2 million in 2010.
  • Comcel, will see a stabilization of its market share over the forecast period. Comcel’s market share by subscribers will be 65.8% in 2010. Tigo Columbia (the 3rd largest operator) will see an increase in its market share at the expense of Movistar Colombia (the 2nd largest operator). Tigo Colombia will see its market share increase from our projected 9.3% to 10.5% while Movistar’s market share decreases from 24.6% to 23.8% over the 2008-2010 forecast period.
  • Back in 4Q06, Tigo Colombia replaced Movistar as the operator with the highest ARPU in Colombia. It is expected that this trend will continue during the forecast period, with Tigo Colombia registering the highest ARPU of US$ 14.49 per month in 2010.  Comcel will continue to receive the lowest ARPU among operators in Colombia at US$ 11.03 per month in 2010. Overall, Colombia will be the market where consumers pay the second lowest ARPU in Latin America, after Peru, with average ARPUs of US$ 11.81 per month forecasted in 2010.
  • Expecting  relative stability in EBITDA margins across the operator space with Comcel having the highest EBITDA margins at 53.2% in 2010.

Poland’s average ARPU to reach US$ 21.14/month (Poland)

  • September 9th, 2008
  • 12:51 pm

Four mobile network operators are currently serving Poland’s mobile market, which is one of the largest in Europe. Subscriber levels is continuing to grow despite penetration levels indicative of a mature market, while a number of Mobile Virtual Network Operators have commenced operations.

All four mobile network operators offer 3G services, with mobile broadband and content seen as the next growth market given low penetration of existing mobile data services.

OPERATORS:
Orange Polska
Plus GSM
Era
Play

The four operators, P4 (Play), Orange Poland, Polkomtel and PTC, in a joint bid, are planning to make a future mobile TV service unconditionally available to broadcasters.

TeliaSonera is in negotiations to purchase the Polish mobile phone operator Play from a private equity fund Novator. Play plans to boost the number of it’s subscribers this years to 2 million from 1.4 million and is planning to triple revenues to 800 million zlotys ($351.3 million) and expects break even by the end of the decade.

Notable highlights of Poland Mobile Forecast include:

  • The number of total subscribers in Poland will increase from 44.5 million in 2008 to 49.5 million in 2010. This implies an increase in the wireless penetration rate from 116.5% to 130.8% over this period.
  • PTC, Polkomtel and PTK Centertel will continue to have similar market shares in the range of 32% - 36% each over the forecast period of 2008 - 2010. However, all of them will see their market shares fall slightly over the next few years as a new operator, Play, increases its market share from 3.5% in 2008 to 5.2% in 2010.
  • In 2010, the average EBITDA margin will be 34.1%, and the average ARPU will be US$ 21.14 per month in Poland.

   

Chunghwa Telecom persistently enjoy the lowest monthly churn rate at 1.2% in 2010 (Taiwan)

  • September 8th, 2008
  • 11:49 am

One of the most advanced Telecommunications networks in Asia is Taiwan. In early 2002, penetration rate passed 100%. Major role played behind this growth is of Government in creating  a liberalised telecommunications market.

Operators covered:

  • Chunghwa Telecom
  • Taiwan Cellular Corp
  • Far Eastone
  • FiTel
  • VIBO
  • APT


Notable highlights of Taiwan Mobile Forecast include:

  • The total subscriber base in Taiwan will increase from our projected 24.5 million to our forecasted 25.3 million in 2010. Wireless penetration levels in Taiwan will remain roughly the same over the next few years at 105.6%.
  • Market shares (by subscribers) of major operators will remain stable over the next several years in Taiwan. Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, Far Eastone, FiTel, and APT will continue to have approximately 35.3%, 25.4%, 25.2%, 6.4% and 4.7% of the market respectively.
  • Chunghwa Telecom will continue to enjoy the lowest monthly churn rate in Taiwan in 2010 at 1.2%.
  • Overall ARPU will be similar across operators, Far Eastone will have the highest Data ARPU among its competitors at US$ 3.79 in 2010.

Singtel to enjoy highest ARPU of US$ 46.41/month in 2010 (Singapore)

  • September 8th, 2008
  • 11:17 am

The mobile market in Singapore is characterised by its energy and innovation. Even when growth appears to have slowed somewhat, there is still a considerable effort going into VAS. The market had initially approached the launch of 3G with a degree of caution. As the licences were issued and the networks rolled out, some of the major operators and, to some extent, the government were circumspect about the prospect of next generation of mobiles. However, once the networks were launched and the customers starting signing up (more than 1.8 million by early 2008), there was a marked lift in enthusiasm for 3G.

The energy of the mobile market in Singapore is reflected in the character of its three major operators - SingTel, StarHub and M1. There is strong competition between these three operators. StarHub, which had the lowest market share, has been growing strongly, catching up and passing M1. With the slowing in overall subscriber growth, considerable effort had gone into value-added products and services. All three operators were awarded 3G licences in mid-2001 and launched services in the first half of 2005, having met the mandatory launch of pilot services by end-2004.

Singtel has added 182,000 new subscribers in Q4 of FY08, taking the total to 2.75 million.The company, due to a strong presence in the foreign worker segment, prepaid customers grew 151,000, to 1.34 million.

Singtel is now having 961,000 3G mobile subscribers, representing 68% of its total postpaid base and may start selling Apple iPhone 3G in Singapore, in early September.

StarHub ended June with 1.8 million mobile subscribers, up 10% on the previous quarter.

Notable highlights of the Singapore Mobile market profile include:

  • The level of wireless penetration in Singapore will continue to increase over the next several years and it will reach 128.8% in 2010. This implies an increase in the number of total subscribers from 5.8 million in 2008 to 6.4 million in 2010.
  • It is expected that the market shares of the three operators in the country - SingTel, Mobile One and StarHub - to remain roughly the same over the next few years. It is predicted that the market shares of SingTel, Mobile One and StarHub to be 41.5%, 26.2% and 32.2% respectively in 2010.
  • In 2010, SingTel will enjoy the highest ARPU in Singapore at US$ 46.41 per month while Mobile One will have the lowest ARPU of US$ 29.06 per month.

   

In 2010 Mobinil may receive ARPU of US $7.47 per month (Egypt)

  • September 5th, 2008
  • 6:06 am

Egypt mobile market statistics reveals that the penetration rate has almost doubled since then to reach 43% in March 2008. The network operators have launched a wide range of advanced services, including 3G mobile broadband. Also Mobinil has launched commercial 3G services over a W-CDMA network covering Cairo, Alexandria, Sharm El-Sheikh, Hurghada, Dahab, Taba, Safaga, Marsa Alam, Luxor and Aswan. Mobinil have invested USD749 million so far this year on its infrastructure. Number of active base stations have been increased to more than 6,500 of which 700 offer 3G access.

Operators serving the Egyption mobile market are:

  • Mobinil
  • Vodafone
  • Etisalat

Notable highlights of  Egypt Mobile Forecast include:

  • The wireless penetration level in Egypt will increase from 56.0% in 2008 to 73.5% in 2010. In the meantime, the number of total subscribers will increase from 42.0 million in 2008 to 57.5 million in 2010.
  • Although both of the two largest operators - ECMS (MobiNil) and Vodafone will continue to have market shares in the range of 42% - 46% over the next few years, Nile Telecom to increase steadily over the forecast period. The market share of Nile Telecom to increase from 9.4% in 2008 to 15.7% in 2010.
  • In 2010, Vodafone will receive ARPU of US$ 10.44 per month whereas ECMS will achieve an ARPU of US$ 7.47 per month.
  • Lower EBITDA margins for Egypt operators in the 43% - 48% range compared to historical EBITDA margins of 49% - 54%.

Vodafone may earn highest ARPU of US$ 15.43 per month in 2010 (Turkey)

  • September 5th, 2008
  • 5:23 am

The Turkey’s mobile market is one of the largest in the region and a country with large population, with current penetration rates indicating room for further growth in the maturing market. Three GSM operators dominate the market, with a fourth analogue operator ceasing services in late 2007. Foreign players hold significant ownership stakes, attracted by the market’s growth potential. High-speed data services such as EDGE are available and the variety of mobile content and applications on offer is increasing although the quality of content on offer will improve once 3G services are launched.
OPERATORS         SUSBCRIBERS
Turkcell                35.4 million
Vodafone             15.8 million
Avea                    11.0 million

Notable highlights of the Turkey Mobile Forecast include:

  • It is forecasted that the wireless market in Turkey is quickly expanding with total subscribers increasing from the projected 69.5 million in 2008 to our forecasted 78.4 million subscribers in 2010.
  • The level of wireless penetration in Turkey will increase from 92.4% in 2008 to 102.7% in 2010.
  • The largest operator, Turkcell, will continue to provide wireless services to a majority of subscribers in Turkey. In 2010, it is forecasted market shares (by subscribers) of the three operators - Turkcell, Vodafone, and Avea (Turk Telekom) - will be 52.3%, 28.1% and 20% respectively.
  • Turkcell will continue to enjoy a high EBITDA margin at 40.3% in 2010. However, it is Vodafone that will have the highest ARPU among operators in the country at US$ 15.43 per month in 2010.

   

AIS will be losing its share to TA Orange and Total Access Communication (Thailand)

  • September 3rd, 2008
  • 6:12 am

Thai mobile market is seeing a rise in both the number of subscribers as well as the market competition. With the arrival at around that time of two additional players in the mobile market - TA-Orange (later True Move) and Hutchison CAT that challenges the powerful duopoly of AIS and DTAC. The market is now in need of some rationalisation; regulatory changes will continue to be a big factor in shaping the future market.

Notable highlights of Thailand Mobile Forecast include:

  • Number of total subscribers in Thailand will increase from 62.7 million in 2008 to 71.5 million in 2010. The wireless penetration level will reach 90.5% in 2010.
  • The largest operator, Advanced Info Service, will be losing its market share to Total Access Communication and TA Orange over the forecast period of 2008 - 2010. The market share of Advanced Info Service will decrease from our projected 44.4% in 2008 to a forecasted 43.8% in 2010.
  • In 2010, Advanced Info Service will have the highest ARPU at US$ 8.63 per month in the country.
  • Advanced Info Service will also continue to enjoy the highest EBITDA margin in the country, and will reach 47.8% in 2010.

Malaysia’s mobile penetration to reach 96.8% in 2010 (Malaysia)

  • September 2nd, 2008
  • 1:31 pm

The remarkable growth in Malaysia’s mobile market over the last few years cannot hide the fact that the industry had been overcrowded. Behind the strong growth, there has been considerable activity going on with the restructuring of the companies involved. The outcome was that the number of operators in Malaysia was reduced from five to three. With 3G licences having been awarded in a two stage process, next generation services are starting to be rolled out. Coming into 2008, growth in total subscribers had levelled off somewhat, as the market appeared to pause. But 3G was providing a new spark and a new operator, U Mobile was set to enter the market. This report looks at the developments in the Malaysian mobile market and reviews the changes taking place.

Telekom Malaysia is the country’s telecommunications incumbent. In April 2003, it acquired number two GSM mobile operator Celcom.
TM International, has telecom investments, mainly mobile, in India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Cambodia, with evolving plans to expand into other parts of Asia.

OPERATOR     SUBSCRIBERS
Maxis               10.5 million
Celcom             7.894 million
DiGi                 6.637 million

Notable highlights of the Malaysia mobile market profile include:

  • The wireless penetration level in Malaysia will continue to increase and will reach 96.8% in 2010. The number of subscribers in Malaysia will increase from our projected 25 million in 2008 to our forecasted 28.5 million in 2010.
  • The level of market concentration in Malaysia, as measured by the HHI index, will stay the same over the next several years. However, we expect that Celcom will be losing its market share to Maxis and DiGi.Com. It is forecasted that Celcom’s market share will drop from 30.4% to 28.2% while that of DiGi.Com will increase from 28.4% to 30% over the forecast period from 2008 to 2010.
  • The ARPU levels have stabilized in Malaysia. In 2010, Maxis will receive the highest ARPU of US$ 21.73 per month while DiGi.Com will receive the lowest ARPU in the country at US$18.83 per month.

   

Indonesia’s mobile penetration may reach 62.4% in 2010 (Indonesia)

  • September 1st, 2008
  • 6:55 am

Indonesia’s mobile market has growing rapidly with the number of subscribers heading for 120 million in 2008, up from 90 million in early 2008, having grown by nearly 40% in 2007. There is vast opportunity for market expansion in Indonesia when compared with some of its Asian neighbours.  For strong growth to continue, the sector must take advantage of the government’s regulatory changes and find ways of attracting more foreign capital into the market place. Value-added services have become important and 3G has arrived.

OPERATOR                                 SUBSCRIBERS (IN MILLION)
Telkomsel                                                   50.55
Indosat                                                      26.42
Excelcomindo                                              22.42
PT Mobile8                                                    3.77
3                                                                 3.21
Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia             0.41

Smart Telecom                                               0.5
Bakrie Telecom                                              4.46
Telkom                                                         6.69

Notable highlights of the Indonesia Mobile Forecast include:

  • Indonesia continues to be the most profitable market in East Asia. It is forecasted that average EBITDA margins in Indonesia at 63.7% in 2010. Telkomsel, in particular, will continue to be one of the most profitable wireless operators in the world with an EBITDA margin of 68.2%.
  • The wireless penetration level in Indonesia is steadily increasing. It will increase from the projected 50.9% in 2008 to 62.4% in 2010. The number of total subscribers will increase from 115.8 million to 146.2 million from 2008 - 2010.
  • Although the total subscriber base will continue to grow, Telkomsel, the largest operator in the country, will be losing its market share to competitors. According to the forecast that the market share (by subscribers) of Telkomsel will decrease from the projected 50.4% in 2008 to 47.9% in 2010.