Algeria’s subscriber base may grow to 36 million in 2010 (Algeria)The $6.4 billion Algerian telecom market is one of the fastest growing sectors of the country. With fast adoption of mobile services 2003/4, the mobile subscriber base has shown exponential growth over the last three years with a CAGR of 78% during 2004-2007. As of 2007, the Algerian mobile market was 81% penetrated.
Djezzy (Orascom), Mobilis (AT), and Nedjma (Wataniya) together sharing the market.
Notable highlights of the 3Q08 Algeria Mobile Forecast include:
- Total subscribers in Algeria will increase by 12%, from 32.21 million in 2008 to 36 million in 2010.
- Djezzy will continue to receive much higher ARPUs than the other two operators. In 2007, Djezzy’s ARPU was $12.34 compared to $7.76 for Nedjma and $3.06 for Mobilis. In 2010, it is forecasted that Djezzy’s ARPU levels will increase slightly to $12.7 per month. We think that market share gains by Nedjma will come primarily from price reductions, and are forecasting a -11.5% reduction in its ARPU over the forecast period. ARPU at Mobilis will remain at $3.06 from 2008 to 2010
- On average over the forecast period, Djezzy and Nedjma will continue to enjoy some of the highest EBITDA margins in the Middle East (for covered companies). Djezzy will continue to enjoy the highest average EBITDA margin among Algerian operators of 61.5% over the forecast period.
- Algeria to have the lowest ARPU levels in the African region and operator-wide ARPU levels in Algeria will be US$ 8.13 in 2010.
- In 2010, the operator which will bill its customers at the lowest rate in our coverage list will be Mobilis in Algeria with an ARPU of only US$ 3.13 per month in 2010.
