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 In 2010 Mobinil may receive ARPU of US $7.47 per month (Egypt)

  • September 5th, 2008
  • 6:06 am

Egypt mobile market statistics reveals that the penetration rate has almost doubled since then to reach 43% in March 2008. The network operators have launched a wide range of advanced services, including 3G mobile broadband. Also Mobinil has launched commercial 3G services over a W-CDMA network covering Cairo, Alexandria, Sharm El-Sheikh, Hurghada, Dahab, Taba, Safaga, Marsa Alam, Luxor and Aswan. Mobinil have invested USD749 million so far this year on its infrastructure. Number of active base stations have been increased to more than 6,500 of which 700 offer 3G access.

Operators serving the Egyption mobile market are:

  • Mobinil
  • Vodafone
  • Etisalat

Notable highlights of  Egypt Mobile Forecast include:

  • The wireless penetration level in Egypt will increase from 56.0% in 2008 to 73.5% in 2010. In the meantime, the number of total subscribers will increase from 42.0 million in 2008 to 57.5 million in 2010.
  • Although both of the two largest operators - ECMS (MobiNil) and Vodafone will continue to have market shares in the range of 42% - 46% over the next few years, Nile Telecom to increase steadily over the forecast period. The market share of Nile Telecom to increase from 9.4% in 2008 to 15.7% in 2010.
  • In 2010, Vodafone will receive ARPU of US$ 10.44 per month whereas ECMS will achieve an ARPU of US$ 7.47 per month.
  • Lower EBITDA margins for Egypt operators in the 43% - 48% range compared to historical EBITDA margins of 49% - 54%.

 Gulf fixed line subscribers “switch on” to mobile!

  • September 4th, 2008
  • 11:40 am

A 6.9% fall in fixed line subscribers from 5.8 million subscribers in 2006 to 5.4 million subscribers in 2007 in the Gulf Region. The reason for a decline is an increasing shift of customer base to the more convenient mobile voice services, according to a report. “Increasing disposable income and convenience of use is encouraging cellular penetration in the region. Other important contributing factor to the increased cellular penetration is the relaxation in telecom regulations allowing second or third player in each country,” the report said.

Gulf Region posted a five-year (2002-07) growth in cellular subscribers at a compound annual growth rate of 37.6 per cent. With the compound annual growth of 52.9 per cent in cellular subscribers, Middle East and North Africa (Mena) lead the charts. Mobile Penetration level is nearing 100%, considering the country-wise cellular markets in the Gulf Region. In the five-year period, all the six member countries reported double digit compound annual growth rate.

 AIS will be losing its share to TA Orange and Total Access Communication (Thailand)

  • September 3rd, 2008
  • 6:12 am

Thai mobile market is seeing a rise in both the number of subscribers as well as the market competition. With the arrival at around that time of two additional players in the mobile market - TA-Orange (later True Move) and Hutchison CAT that challenges the powerful duopoly of AIS and DTAC. The market is now in need of some rationalisation; regulatory changes will continue to be a big factor in shaping the future market.

Notable highlights of Thailand Mobile Forecast include:

  • Number of total subscribers in Thailand will increase from 62.7 million in 2008 to 71.5 million in 2010. The wireless penetration level will reach 90.5% in 2010.
  • The largest operator, Advanced Info Service, will be losing its market share to Total Access Communication and TA Orange over the forecast period of 2008 - 2010. The market share of Advanced Info Service will decrease from our projected 44.4% in 2008 to a forecasted 43.8% in 2010.
  • In 2010, Advanced Info Service will have the highest ARPU at US$ 8.63 per month in the country.
  • Advanced Info Service will also continue to enjoy the highest EBITDA margin in the country, and will reach 47.8% in 2010.

 MTN to continue its domination in Nigerian mobile market (Nigeria)

  • September 1st, 2008
  • 6:26 am

With 44 million subscribers, in 2008 Nigeria beats South Africa to become largests mobile market.  New customers are signing up at a rate of almost one per second, and yet market penetration stands at only just over 30%. To expand networks, operators are investing billions of dollars. 3G services have been instigated, and rising competition comes from a number of additional players who have entered the lucrative mobile market under a new unified licensing regime. Falling ARPU levels compelling the operators to introduce new services and transform themselves into converged broadband service providers.

Operators covered for Nigeria include

  • MTN
  • MTC
  • Nitel
  • Globacom

Notable highlights of  Mobile Forecast include:

  • The subscriber base in Nigeria will be increasing rapidly from 2008 to 2010. The number of total subscribers will rise from our current projected 52.7 million to a forecasted 70.8 million in 2010.
  • The level of wireless penetration in the country will also increase from 35.9% in 2008 to 45.5% in 2010.
  • The largest operator in Nigeria will continue to be MTN whose market share in 2010 will be 43.6%. The competitive environment in the Nigerian wireless market to be stable over the next few years with second player (MTC) and third player (Globacom) serving approximately 33.1% and 20.3% of total subscribers respectively.
  • MTN will receive ARPU of US$ 14.57 and will enjoy 52.9% EBITDA margin in 2010 whereas MTC will have ARPU of US$ 8.07 and 39.8% EBITDA margin.

 OTE 2Q revenues up by 2.5% (Greece)

  • August 29th, 2008
  • 11:08 am

Cosmote’s continuous growth leads OTE (Greek operator) to post second quarter revenues of EUR 1.59 billion, up 2.5 percent from a year earlier. OIBDA improved 6.3 percent to EUR 578.8 million, and the OIBDA margin rose 1.5 points to 36.6 percent, helped by cost controls and Cosmote Romania turning its first profit. Net profit lifts 16.6 percent to EUR 159.3 million. Cash flow rose 26 percent to EUR 443.4 million. It anticipates the trends of the first half to continue in the rest of the year, with any declines from fixed-line operations offset by growth in mobile, said OTE.

 Greece to be the most highly penetrated market of the world by 2010 (Greece)

  • August 29th, 2008
  • 5:16 am

Mobile market of Greece has reached a saturation point where there  is no or little room for organic growth through new subscriber additions. In an order to taise the ARPU levels mobile network operators are encouraging prepaid users to migrate to postpaid plans and introducing mobile content and data. However, non-SMS mobile data usage is low, as attributed by the marginal amounts of revenue generated although the deployment of 3G\HSDPA networks provides the foundation for future mobile content services.

Operators serving Greece Mobile market are Vodafone Panafon, TIM Hellas, Cosmote, and Q-Telecom.

Notable highlights of Greece Mobile Forecast include:

  • In 2010, Greece will be the most highly penetrated market in the world. The wireless penetration level will increase from our projected 156.7% in 2008 to 173.3% in 2010.
  • The number of total subscribers in Greece will increase from 17.5 million in 2008 to 19.3 million in 2010.
  • The two largest operators in Greece will continue to be Vodafone Panafon and Cosmote.  Cosmote will continue to increase its market share in the next few years. It will increase from 39.9% to 42.1% from 2008 to 2010.
  • Cosmote will enjoy a higher EBITDA margin at 40.3% and a lower ARPU of US$ 33.74 per month compared to Vodafone Panafon with 35.1% EBITDA margin and $34.43 ARPU per month.

 Venezuela telecom revenues leap 28.83% in Q2

  • August 28th, 2008
  • 11:58 am

Second quarter results shows growth in Venezuela income which is generated by telecommunications services. The income grew by 28.83 percent reaching USD 2.6 billion. According to a report, Investments during the period amounted to USD 236.9 million. At the end of June, there were 93 mobile phone lines per 100 inhabitants.

Statistics shows that

  • No. of mobile subscribers reaches 25.87 million
  • Mobile traffic moves up by 27.91 percent
  • SMS increases by 11.47 billion

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 Mobile services to break $2bn mark before 2010 (Angola)

  • August 28th, 2008
  • 10:10 am

After decades of civil war, peace was refurbished in 2002. Licensing of four new fixed-wireless operators brought the competition in a tardy market. Use of Third Generation technologies and WIMAX is providing the advanced services. Privatisation of Angola Telecom and the licensing of a third mobile operator is round the corner. Angola had anticipated 5 million mobile subscribers at the end of 2007, a penetration of 30% of the population, and 50% of the country’s estimated SIM card addressable market. There are few signs of market softness, run rates have been sustained, despite a dip in the 3-month monthly run rate average over the first quarter of 2008.

Angola’s market penetration to more than double over the next four years, passing the 75% mark in 2011, a projection we consider conservative. For market leader Unitel, operating costs have increased by an average of 60% over the three years to 2007. Angolan mobile operators spend around $300million-$350million combined, with Unitel accounting for about 70% of that amount. It is projected that revenue will grow by an average of 15%-20% over the next three years. Angola is deep enough for mobile services to break the $2billion mark before 2010, and at least come close to $3billion before 2013.

 Mobile Subscribers base will reach a mark of 55.3 million in 2010 (Spain)

  • August 27th, 2008
  • 5:23 am

One of the largest markets in Europe, Spain supporting the population of more than 44 million. Cut throat competition among the major operators has helped coercing down the cost of services. First MVNOs were instigated which promise too intensify competition further. A great change is also seen with the launch of services from Xfera.

Telefonica Moviles, Vodafone, Orange, and Xfera operators serving the Mobile market of Spain.

Notable highlights of Spain Mobile Forecast include:

  • The wireless market in Spain will be expanding over the next several years. The total subscriber base will increase from 50.2 million in 2007 to our forecasted 55.3 million in 2010. The wireless penetration level will rise from 111.8% in 2007 to 116.9% in 2010 (virtually unchanged from out previous forecast).
  • A relative stability in market shares will be seen for the major operators. It is  projected that the  market shares of 41.4%, 34.3%, 15.4%, and 9.3% respectively for Telefonica, Vodafone, Orange, and Xfera.

 O2 is expected to generate the highest ARPU of $ 32.99 by 2010 (Germany)

  • August 26th, 2008
  • 2:23 pm

German Mobile market shows strong growth with which the country’s mobile penetration rate is rapidly catching up with the EU average. Two out of the four operators is dominating the market. But there is increasingly lively activity from MVNOs and resellers which has triggered competition and placed pressure on tariffs, resulting in lower ARPU. Regulatory pressure on termination tariffs has also bolstered operators to step-up their development of data applications to improve profit margins.

Operators covered for Germany include: T-Mobile, D2 (Vodafone), E-Plus, O2.

Notable highlights of Germany Mobile Forecast include:

  • The number of total subscribers in Germany will increase from 97.2 million to 105.2 million between 2007 and 2010. The wireless penetration level will continue to increase.
  • T-Mobile’s market share will continue to decline from its current level to reach 35.9% in 2010 while E-Plus and O2 will continue to see some increase in their market share figures.
  • In 2010, O2 will generate the highest ARPU of US$ 32.99 (previously US$ 32.78 per month) while T-Mobile will generate the lowest ARPU of US$ 24.22 (previously US $24.06) per month.
  • T-Mobile, E-Plus, and O2 will see an increase in margins at 38.5%, 38.3%, and 27.2% in 2010; while and D2 (Vodafone) will see some declines in EBITDA margins over the forecast period, coming in at 41.2% in 2010.