According to a new report from Pyramid Research, ­LTE is expected to gain 11% of total subscriptions in 2015, while 3G will make up 69% of subscriptions in 2015, boosted by mobile player investment into HSPA+ networks.

Pyramid expects that the Polish market to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% in local currency terms in the forecast period, reaching US$14.7 billion by 2015, making it the second largest in Central and Eastern Europe, after Russia.

According to Sylwia Boguszewska, Analyst for Pyramid, this growth is driven by the proliferation of fixed broadband and related services, stemming from more intense competition, as well as mobile data, bundled with smartphones and computing devices.

As per Boguszewska, the Polish mobile market is almost evenly divided between the three largest MNOs – PTC, Orange, and Polkomtel. In 2009, two MNOs owned by Aero 2, CenterNet, and Mobyland entered the market. In September 2010, these latest entrants announced the launch of a LTE network, which is set to have a commercial debut towards year-end 2010. Aero 2 is also in possession of a LTE license, and a tender for more LTE spectrum is set to take place in 2011.

Pyramid expects that the mobile arm of the incumbent (Orange) will recover its leadership position. The other operators (Aero 2, Mobyland, and CenterNet) will hold a combined market share of 4% by the end of the forecast period, their competitive advantage being their first mover strategy in the LTE space.

Although CenterNet and Mobyland will provide wholesale services, there are already several players, including the leading DTH operator Cyfrowy Polsat, that are interested in reselling 4G Internet services.