MTN-Orascom’s joint subscriber base will surpass the 100 million mark if the deal goes through. This would mean that it will be over twice the size of Airtel Africa &  Orange. MTN will get a boost of over 20 million subs from the Orascom deal.

That said, if a deal were to happen, here’s a quick analysis of whats for sale in the Orascom portfolio and why 2 assets are particularly interesting:

1. Djezzy in Algeria: Top line of $1.86 billion with a 46% market share (14.6 million subs) and a 57% EBITDA margin! This is the jewel in the crown. However, there is a downside here as well for some key reasons. Orascom’s relationship with the government and the regulator is strained and Q4 2009 results suffered on account of backdated taxes and penalties. Djezzy has actually seen market share decline by 5 percent and ARPU declined by 16% in 2009. Mobile penetration is in excess of 90% and Q-tel owned Njedma has proven to be an aggressive competitor. Numbers are big and exciting but the hay-days might just be getting over pretty soon though.

2. Tunisiana in Tunisia: Orascom owns half of Tunisiana alongside it’s arch rival in Algeria, Q-Tel (Wataniya) which owns the remaining 50 percent. With 53 percent market share (5.2 million subs) and 54% EBITDA margin this is another rock and roll story. However, with Orange launching and that too with an exclusive 3G license, pressures will build up sooner rather than later.

3. CellOne Namibia, Telecel Zimbabwe, Telecel Central African Republic & U-com Burundi together have 1.8 million subscribers and contribute only $81 million to the top line.

If the deal were to go through then Djezzy will be the third largest operation in the MTN-Orascom combine, after Nigeria and South Africa.

Here’s a snapshot of what the MTN-Orascom would look like (Figures are sourced from Wireless Intelligence)