A new research report has revealed that much of the growth in the computer market for 2011 is estimated to come from the tablet/pad market, which will ship some 52 million units this year. Of these shipments, Apple is expected to account for over 75%, leaving approximately 12 million units for other vendors.
Researchers anticipate that the iPad’s success will continue, and even accelerate, with the arrival of the thinner, lighter and faster iPad 2. This growth means, however, that ‘traditional’ PC companies, notably Microsoft, Intel and AMD, are likely to lose market share during the year.
Pads are disrupting the PC refresh cycle in highly penetrated markets. Their innovative user experience has captured the imagination of consumers, who are extending the life of their existing hardware, while taking an interest in pads.
Researchers also urge vendors not to dismiss the opportunity for pads in business: The number of affluent, highly-mobile executives buying pads will increase quickly in 2011. Likewise, vertical market adoption of pads, especially in healthcare and education, will gain momentum, as more appropriate applications are built.
For every 10 pads sold this year, researchers estimate that five netbook or notebook sales will be lost, across both consumer and enterprise markets. This trend will be most pronounced in developed markets, such as the United States, Canada, France, Germany, the UK, the Nordics, Benelux, Australia and Japan.
It is also expected that the notebook PC category will grow nearly 8% in 2011, despite the impact of pads, thanks to the ongoing Windows 7 refresh and improving business confidence in the commercial sector. Netbooks, however, will decline by about 13% to 34 million units.
Overstocked retail channels in many countries, including the United States, much of Western Europe, China and Indonesia, will further hinder notebook growth in the first part of the year. Even Russia, where high oil prices have led to a PC boom, has become oversupplied.