NEW DELHI, SEPTEMBER 18: India hopes to be a telecom major by 2020 but trends indicate it is still on the dark side of the wireless divide: rural teledensity is still at 2 per cent, roughly where it was at the time of Independence, as against 40 per cent teledensity in the urban areas.
Fresh data for 2005-06 filed by telecom regulators the world over shows that mobile phones are a much bigger story elsewhere in the world, even in the neighbourhood.
Mobile phones have now reached 8 per cent of India’s 1 billion-strong population but in March 2006 Pakistan achieved a mobile teledensity of 14 per cent, clocking an impressive 170 per cent growth rate the previous year. India’s mobile teledensity is growing at 60-65 per cent a year.
Strife-torn Sri Lanka has al so done well: it crossed the 17 per cent mobile teledensity mark in early 2006 and its mobile phones are growing at 50 per cent every year. Bangladesh too has gone places: It registered a 138 per cent mobile phone growth rate in 2005 which no one expects to falter.
Nripendra Mishra, chairman of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, says “I think changes in rural India’s teledensity will show up in the next six or eight months – the moment we announce that the Universal Service Obligation (USO) fund will be given out for cellular telephony. In addition, new technologies like WiFi and WiMax will go into rural areas sooner than the land lines or mobile phone networks, and will make a serious impact for the better.”
India’s neighbours, including or excluding China, are not just distributing phones faster. They are also competing harder for investments that global telecom firms are now ready to make. In addition, mobile teledensity improves GDP, which could make India’s telecom rivals far more successful in other ways too. Analysts are beginning to caution that the only reason why India’s teledensity looks so good is because of its sheer size.
“We are not doing as well as our neighbours in expanding connectivity, be it Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Pakistan. Though we are adding many phones in urban areas, rural teledensity is still at 2 per cent, roughly where it was when we became independent. We just keep on giving new mobile phones to those in big cities who already have land lines,” says telecom analyst Mahesh Uppal. Despite the wide contrasts in per capita income and GDP, sometimes its hard to tell who’s catching up on whom between India and its neighbours.
Even Afghanistan, where the mobile networks were built afresh in 2002 after years of wars, mobile teledensity has touched 4 per cent. This is just below the global low-income average, but Afghanistan is starting from a near-zero mobility base.
India may be a minnow before telecom heavyweights China, Taiwan, US but some of its biggest rivals are right next door. India and other Asian countries like Mongolia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand launched their mobile networks in roughly the same decades but India lags behind the rest. Mongolia achieved 20 per cent mobile teledensity in 2006, though it started in 2000 with only two per cent – that’s a 100 per cent growth rate. Malaysia had 80 per cent mobile penetration in early 2006 and its people sent nine million SMS’ in 2005 which makes them the second best performers on this front, only after Singapore.
There is a reason why India has become a big telecom success story but not the biggest. For one, the rural teledensity target in India has been pending since 1995 (at 10 per cent) although urban mobile teledensity has skyrocketed to 40 per cent. Besides, Indian companies are waiting in the wings for their big chance: A government subsidy for going rural.
Changes in rural India’s teledensity is key because as we speak, Hong Kong is achieving 125 per cent mobile teledensity, South Korea 90 per cent, Australia 95 per cent and Japan 76 per cent. Weren’t these countries our real competition when we started out in 1991, not Bhutan or Nepal (both with 2 per cent)?
Source- http://www.indianexpress.com
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