­A most recent research report has discovered that mobile data revenue in Iran is limited by the lack of 3G licenses and by the poor quality of the incumbent’s core network, as well as limitations on online content. These circumstances are changing, however, and with strong demand, mobile data revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2010 to 2015.

Due to infrastructure limitations and legal restrictions on Internet websites, Iran’s data segment is still in its infancy, generating less than a fifth of the telecom industry’s $9.1 billion revenue in 2010.

As per the researchers, Iran has a national ban on many websites, including political, human rights and women’s sites and blogs expressing dissent or deemed to be pornographic and un-Islamic. The ban has also targeted such popular social networking sites as Facebook and YouTube, as well as news sites.

They added that network improvement and creation of local content in Iran will be crucial as growth in data services is triggered by the entry of a third operator, Tamin Telecom. It is expected that data’s share of total revenue to reach 29% by the end of 2015, reaching $3.1 billion. This growth will come not only from new broadband infrastructure but also from greater mobile Internet availability over 2.5G and the launch of 3G and mobile broadband.

3G handsets are already common, as the networks of the two mobile operators are trailing far behind the capabilities of their subscribers’ handsets. Once the third entrant launches 3G services in late 2011, and other operators launch 3G after the two-year exclusivity period, it is expected that 3G service adoption will boom.

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The number of mobile subscribers in India is expected to grow from just over 100 million today to more than 350 million by 2010, an addition of 250 million subscribers in just four years, according to The Diffusion Group. The analysts predict that the evolving mobile markets in China and India will reshape the global telecommunications and technology landscape and realign market share among today’s mobile market leaders.

According to The Diffusion Group, China market is widely heralded as the most immediate and largest market opportunity for mobile vendors. India’s growth rate will be equally explosive. When combined, China and India — what TDG calls “New Asia” — have a population of approximately 2.5 billion people and comprise the single largest opportunity for mobile vendors in the history of mobile telecom.”While India’s mobile market growth will in many ways follow China, the reasons for its growth are very different,” noted Michael Greeson, founder of The Diffusion Group. “India continues to experience a level of poverty far deeper than China and has little in the way of fixed-line infrastructure to support telecommunications. More than half of India’s 700 million rural inhabitants have no access to residential electricity and must rely on community pay phones. It is because of this unique confluence of factors that mobile technologies make so much sense to both India’s government and to operators.”

As Greeson notes, modern mobile telecommunications technology offers developing nations a way to cover expansive ‘greenfield’ territories — in this case, areas bereft of home or personal telecommunications — in a faster and less expensive way than traditional fixed telecom infrastructure. Combined with the world’s lowest per-minute charges, inexpensive handsets, and the social status of mobile phone ownership, India’s mobile operators are preparing to exploit this opportunity.

Other key findings from TDG’s study of India’s mobile markets include the following:

  • Despite 12 years of deregulation, the number of fixed-line telecom subscribers has increased less than 15% in the last three years: from 41.5 million to 47.5 million, most of which has been confined to urban areas.
  • In India, the cost of installing new fixed lines is roughly three times the price of installing a mobile line.
  • As of early 2006, about half of all the towns and villages in India could receive a mobile signal. The Ministry of Communication and Information Technology has set a goal to reach 90% coverage by the end of 2006 – a very ambitious goal, but one that could be within reach given the steps that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) and the Indian government have taken to enable competition and increase foreign investment.
  • Despite the fact that government taxes on mobile phone revenues are amongst the highest in the world, TDG expects that taxes, levies, and spectrum fees will be reduced to cover only the Universal Service Obligation (USO) fund and administrative costs.
  • Given the rapid pace of growth, upgrading current infrastructure has taken a backseat to network expansion and quality of service in most areas is extremely poor.
  • Total mobile service revenue will increase over 170% from 2006 through 2010, which translates to a compound annual growth rate of 22.1%.

While India offers tremendous opportunity for mobile telecom vendors, exploiting these opportunities requires understanding India’s regulatory and business environment, as well as comprehending India’s unique social and demographic landscape.

About the market research report

TDG’s 65-page report, “India’s Mobile Markets – Analysis & Forecasts” (July 2006) by Thomas Wolf and Kambam Deepak with Michael Greeson, presents an in-depth analysis of the social, political, technological, and market forces that are shaping India’s telecom evolution and pushing mobile subscriptions to record levels. The report provides forecasts for total subscriber demand, an analysis of 3G subscriber growth, market share analysis among India’s mobile operators, and forecasts for mobile ARPU through 2010.

Source- http://www.tekrati.com

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